Bluesky has reached 40.2 million registered users as of January 2026, but the growth rate tells a more nuanced story. The platform that was adding 5 million users per month at its November 2024 peak has slowed to approximately 1.4 million new users per month.
Is this cause for concern? Let's analyze what the numbers mean and what they signal about Bluesky's trajectory.
January 2026: Bluesky by the Numbers
| Metric | January 2026 | vs. Peak (Nov 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Registered Users | 40.2 million | +17.2 million |
| Monthly Growth Rate | ~1.4 million | Down from ~5 million |
| Signups Per Second | 0.3 users/sec | Down from 1.0/sec |
| Daily Active Users | ~4 million | Stable |
| Monthly Active Users | ~14 million | +2 million |
The Growth Timeline: How We Got Here
Understanding Bluesky's current growth requires context:
The 2024 Surge
Bluesky's explosive growth came in waves:
- September 2024: Brazil bans X, driving 3 million signups
- October 2024: X modifies block feature, 1.2 million sign up in response
- November 2024: US election drives massive migration, +10 million in one month
- Peak daily signups: ~1 million per day
The 2025 Consolidation
Growth normalized through 2025:
- January 2025: 30 million users
- March 2025: Growth slows to 2-3M/month
- August 2025: 38 million users
- December 2025: 40 million milestone
January 2026: The New Normal
The current rate of ~1.4 million/month represents sustainable organic growth rather than crisis-driven spikes.
Is Slowing Growth a Problem?
No. Here's why the slowdown is actually healthy:
1. Crisis-Driven Growth Isn't Sustainable
The 5 million/month peak was driven by specific events (Brazil ban, US election, X controversies). You can't replicate a crisis every month. Organic growth at 1.4M/month is more sustainable.
2. Engagement Remains Strong
Despite slower signups, daily active users have remained stable at ~4 million. This means the existing user base is engaged, not churning.
3. Platform is Maturing
All social platforms see growth slowdowns as they scale. Twitter took 10 years to reach 300 million users. Bluesky reaching 40 million in under 2 years of public access is exceptional.
4. Quality Over Quantity
Slower growth often means better retention. Users joining now are more intentional, not just fleeing a crisis.
What's Still Driving Growth in January 2026?
Ongoing X/Twitter Dissatisfaction
While the mass exodus has slowed, a steady stream of users continues leaving X for Bluesky. Changes to X's algorithm, moderation policies, and business direction keep pushing users to alternatives.
Creator Migration
Influencers and content creators are increasingly diversifying to Bluesky. Many are finding better engagement rates and more authentic interactions than on saturated platforms.
News & Media Adoption
Major news organizations have established Bluesky presences. According to Pew Research, 43% of news influencers now have Bluesky accounts, driving their audiences to the platform.
Feature Development
Bluesky continues shipping improvements:
- Video support enhancements
- Better DM functionality
- Improved moderation tools
- Custom feed discovery
- Starter Packs for onboarding
January 2026: Growth Comparison
How does Bluesky's current growth compare to competitors?
| Platform | Monthly Growth | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Bluesky | +1.4 million | Slowing but positive |
| Threads | +10-15 million | Steady (Meta push) |
| X (Twitter) | Declining | Losing users |
| Mastodon | Flat | Minimal growth |
Bluesky is growing faster than X (which is declining) and Mastodon, but slower than Threads (which benefits from Instagram's 2 billion users).
The Opportunity Window
Despite slower growth, January 2026 remains an excellent time to build a Bluesky presence:
The Numbers That Matter
- Only 0.3% of users have 1,000+ followers
- 50% of users have just 1 follower
- Most niches remain undersaturated
- Chronological timeline means posts get seen
Compare to Mature Platforms
On Twitter/X, the top 1% of accounts have 99%+ of the followers. On Bluesky, the playing field is still relatively level. This won't last forever.
What to Expect in 2026
Based on current trends, here's what we project:
| Milestone | Projected Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 45 million users | March-April 2026 | Organic growth |
| 50 million users | June-July 2026 | At current rate |
| 60 million users | End of 2026 | Conservative estimate |
Growth could accelerate with:
- Major X controversies
- Celebrity migrations
- International expansion
- Killer feature releases
How to Grow on Bluesky in January 2026
Take advantage of the current opportunity:
- Post consistently during peak traffic hours
- Use trending hashtags from our real-time tracker
- Engage authentically - reply to posts, join conversations
- Create or join Starter Packs in your niche
- Cross-promote from your other platforms
- Focus on your niche before it gets crowded
Track Bluesky Trends with Skyscraper
Stay ahead of Bluesky's growth:
- Skyscraper for iOS - Native Bluesky client for growth-focused users
- Trending Hashtags - See what's trending right now
- Bluesky Tools - Monitor keywords and mentions
Related Reading
- Bluesky MAU January 2026: Monthly Active Users
- Bluesky User Growth 2026: Full Statistics
- Bluesky User Projections 2026
- Best Social Media Platform for Influencers 2026
- How to Become a Bluesky Influencer