Bluesky has reached 40.2 million registered users as of January 2026, but the growth rate tells a more nuanced story. The platform that was adding 5 million users per month at its November 2024 peak has slowed to approximately 1.4 million new users per month.

Is this cause for concern? Let's analyze what the numbers mean and what they signal about Bluesky's trajectory.

January 2026: Bluesky by the Numbers

Metric January 2026 vs. Peak (Nov 2024)
Total Registered Users 40.2 million +17.2 million
Monthly Growth Rate ~1.4 million Down from ~5 million
Signups Per Second 0.3 users/sec Down from 1.0/sec
Daily Active Users ~4 million Stable
Monthly Active Users ~14 million +2 million

The Growth Timeline: How We Got Here

Understanding Bluesky's current growth requires context:

The 2024 Surge

Bluesky's explosive growth came in waves:

  • September 2024: Brazil bans X, driving 3 million signups
  • October 2024: X modifies block feature, 1.2 million sign up in response
  • November 2024: US election drives massive migration, +10 million in one month
  • Peak daily signups: ~1 million per day

The 2025 Consolidation

Growth normalized through 2025:

  • January 2025: 30 million users
  • March 2025: Growth slows to 2-3M/month
  • August 2025: 38 million users
  • December 2025: 40 million milestone

January 2026: The New Normal

The current rate of ~1.4 million/month represents sustainable organic growth rather than crisis-driven spikes.

Is Slowing Growth a Problem?

No. Here's why the slowdown is actually healthy:

1. Crisis-Driven Growth Isn't Sustainable

The 5 million/month peak was driven by specific events (Brazil ban, US election, X controversies). You can't replicate a crisis every month. Organic growth at 1.4M/month is more sustainable.

2. Engagement Remains Strong

Despite slower signups, daily active users have remained stable at ~4 million. This means the existing user base is engaged, not churning.

3. Platform is Maturing

All social platforms see growth slowdowns as they scale. Twitter took 10 years to reach 300 million users. Bluesky reaching 40 million in under 2 years of public access is exceptional.

4. Quality Over Quantity

Slower growth often means better retention. Users joining now are more intentional, not just fleeing a crisis.

What's Still Driving Growth in January 2026?

Ongoing X/Twitter Dissatisfaction

While the mass exodus has slowed, a steady stream of users continues leaving X for Bluesky. Changes to X's algorithm, moderation policies, and business direction keep pushing users to alternatives.

Creator Migration

Influencers and content creators are increasingly diversifying to Bluesky. Many are finding better engagement rates and more authentic interactions than on saturated platforms.

News & Media Adoption

Major news organizations have established Bluesky presences. According to Pew Research, 43% of news influencers now have Bluesky accounts, driving their audiences to the platform.

Feature Development

Bluesky continues shipping improvements:

  • Video support enhancements
  • Better DM functionality
  • Improved moderation tools
  • Custom feed discovery
  • Starter Packs for onboarding

January 2026: Growth Comparison

How does Bluesky's current growth compare to competitors?

Platform Monthly Growth Trend
Bluesky +1.4 million Slowing but positive
Threads +10-15 million Steady (Meta push)
X (Twitter) Declining Losing users
Mastodon Flat Minimal growth

Bluesky is growing faster than X (which is declining) and Mastodon, but slower than Threads (which benefits from Instagram's 2 billion users).

The Opportunity Window

Despite slower growth, January 2026 remains an excellent time to build a Bluesky presence:

The Numbers That Matter

  • Only 0.3% of users have 1,000+ followers
  • 50% of users have just 1 follower
  • Most niches remain undersaturated
  • Chronological timeline means posts get seen

Compare to Mature Platforms

On Twitter/X, the top 1% of accounts have 99%+ of the followers. On Bluesky, the playing field is still relatively level. This won't last forever.

What to Expect in 2026

Based on current trends, here's what we project:

Milestone Projected Date Notes
45 million users March-April 2026 Organic growth
50 million users June-July 2026 At current rate
60 million users End of 2026 Conservative estimate

Growth could accelerate with:

  • Major X controversies
  • Celebrity migrations
  • International expansion
  • Killer feature releases

How to Grow on Bluesky in January 2026

Take advantage of the current opportunity:

  1. Post consistently during peak traffic hours
  2. Use trending hashtags from our real-time tracker
  3. Engage authentically - reply to posts, join conversations
  4. Create or join Starter Packs in your niche
  5. Cross-promote from your other platforms
  6. Focus on your niche before it gets crowded

Track Bluesky Trends with Skyscraper

Stay ahead of Bluesky's growth:

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About Skyscraper

Skyscraper is a suite of Bluesky tools including an iOS app, trending hashtags API, and keyword monitoring. We track real-time Bluesky data to help creators, brands, and researchers understand the platform's growth and opportunities.